My choice in the HD DVD format war

April 7, 2006

hd movie titlesI’ve followed the hi-def DVD format war for roughly 22 months now and after all the posturing, rhetoric and fleeting dreams of unification we’re right back where we started from, with two formats. Its time to lay it on the line and state my case for which of the two competing high-definition DVD formats I’m backing.

I want to get one thing out of the way right off the bat, a dual-format player doesn’t solve the underlying problem, it only offers a temporary band-aid to the situation. Without a clear winner neither format will reach its full potential of replacing DVD and even SACD, DVD-A and Dual Disc. That’s right, there’s more at stake here than just prerecorded high-definition video.

The real goal here should be overwhelming consumer acceptance of one format over the other; this is what we need to end the format war. If either of the competing formats could say we have firm commitments from all studios to release their entire back catalogs and all new releases on our format immediately, there would be no format war. But as we all know this is not the case.

We as consumers are being held hostage in a sense. We deserve one disc that offers high definition movies and or high resolution music, but because these huge consumer electronics companies couldn’t see eye to eye (shocker) we’re left with a splintered assortment of may-haps for the years ahead.

Let’s take a stand and remind these conglomerates we deserve better. We don’t want this fractured un-format shoved down our throats, we want ONE high capacity format that can handle all of our pre-recorded needs with one disc. I want to be able to buy a HDTV/Hi-Res Audio disc knowing it’ll be around for years to come and that I won’t have to rely on a dual-format player to play it.

Whoa, ok taking a deep breath. Alright back to my case. Overwhelming consumer acceptance of one format is what will end this, not Toshiba’s or Sony’s graciousness. With the format war over; the media companies can get down to what they should really be doing, ramping up production for both HD movie and high-res audio discs. But first the format of choice has to rise to the surface. How will this be decided?

Let’s look at what generally moves a new format forward:

(1) Fills a Need
(2) Price
(3) Brand Recognition
(4) Ease of transition
(5) Accessibility, getting the product in front of people

For point (1), we only need look at the void left by standard definition DVD and the ever growing sales of large screen, high definition displays. Admittedly both formats win on this point alone, but anything better than DVD would by default.

As to point (2), no real question that HD-DVD has a huge advantage here, not only for early adopters but down the road as well. HD-DVD players will be as cheap as $500.00 at launch; it would be hard to describe the initial Blu-ray players at $1000.00 a bargain. Sure the first DVD players commanded a similar premium, but DVD’s acceptance wasn’t hampered by a format war. The manufacturers had a captive audience (ready to move on from VHS) and time was on their side.

Ok to point (3), consumer awareness is generally high on both sides with those who are tech-savvy to begin with, but HD-DVD has an advantage with folks who don’t spend their free time reading up on the latest and greatest electronics. I mean hey it’s called HD-DVD. What’s not to get? HD-DVD tells you what it is with its title alone, Blu-ray sounds like something out of a science fiction movie. Obviously you and I know what Blu-ray is, but will that typical Best-Buy shopper looking for a gift for their in-laws know what it is? Don’t discount this point. Easy, concise branding is paramount in marketing to the masses.

With point (4), the ease of transition argument might be obfuscated by point 3 (price) but that’s really not what were talking about. Toshiba is making sure to embrace both legacy disc formats with their first players (CD & DVD) and Sony is not. Oh wait, were you unaware that Sony’s first Blu-ray player set for launch in the United States doesn’t even play CD’s?

Both Sony’s BDP-S1 and Pioneer’s BDP-HD1 can’t play CDs although Samsung’s BD-P1000 will. Confused? I’m guessing the consumers will be as well. I find it odd that this isn’t more widely known, possible intentional omission from the marketing department? I’ll grant you that the ease of transition problems (if any) can easily be remedied by the manufacturers, but Sony’s first glaring omission in their 1k dollar player doesn’t exactly have me clamoring to give them my hard-earned dollars.

Lastly point (5), just getting the product in front of as many people as possible. Walmart is selling the Toshiba HD-D1, thats a lot of people.. (The D1 is an all black version of the HD-A1)

My Pick in the format war is…

This post may alienate a few of you, regrettable as that may be I feel to stand back and wait this out without as much as stating my case would do a bigger disservice to my readers. I say that because as I’m typing this I’m glancing down at the results of our little informal format war poll and I can see that Blu-ray has a small lead over HD-DVD.

I’m going with HD-DVD. Yes, yes I can hear the growls from the technophiles now, ‘Greenway must have gone off his rocker to support that loser format!’ But as I continue here hopefully you’ll at least see where I’m coming from, even if we still disagree at the end.

First make no mistake, I completely understand that Blu-ray is supposedly a technically superior format and to that I say, so what? The consumer electronics landscape is littered with the carcasses of technically superior formats. Let me name a few:

BetaMax  (dead)
MiniDisc  (dead, in the U.S at least)
SACD (dying, just wait)
Sony’s CD Root-Kit  (not technically a format, but a debacle nonetheless)
Universal Media Disc  (on its death bed)

See any similarities in those examples? Yes they’re all formats or technologies invented or pushed by Sony. I’m not advocating that Sony is inept or foolhardy with their developments, these are just a few of the examples that came to mind when I thought of CE failures. Obviously there are plenty of others.

But you say, Blu-ray holds more data! Again I say so what? Toshiba’s HD-DVD disc tops out at 30GB (dual-layer) and I submit to you that this is more than enough for high definition movies and surely more than enough for high resolution audio.

A friend of mine has a copy of a 1080i movie on his hard drive with a run time of 116 minutes; this particular file is 12GB. 112 minutes times 12GB comes in around 6GB per hour, which is more than enough to pack in even the biggest epic with menus on a single HD-DVD disc.

But Blu-ray has more studio support! Ok let’s see, HD-DVD has Warner, Universal, and Paramount where Blu-ray has Fox, Disney and MGM. Granted Blu-ray has some cross studio support as well, but again I say so what?

If you think for one second any of those studios won’t jump ship to whichever format is selling more hardware, I have a bridge to sell you. The studio support argument is a misnomer in my opinion. No* publicly held corporation wants to explain to their stockholders, yes we could have earned more on your investment but we were fighting a format war! *Hooray for gross generalizations

Lets get real. The studio support will go where the potential sales are. More xyz players sold means studio 123 releases titles for that format, although if Sony wants to be stubborn they can withhold MGM titles as long as they wish.

Others might argue, but Blu-ray is better for computers because we can store more files on the recordable discs! Recordable formats evolve from their pre-recorded counterparts, not the other way around. For example, the CD came before the CDR and the DVD came before the DVD-R. Computer platforms are much easier to update than stand-alone CE gear.

I have no doubt that if widely adopted, HD-DVD blank media storage capacities will increase accordingly. Although I will admit we may be limited to the initial format constraints for PC to HD-DVD player playback, but that doesn’t negate my point.

Let’s not forget about the Playstation 3 and its supposed killer app influence on Blu-ray. I still assert that stand alone CE playback devices rule the world of movies and music, not game platforms. The video game generation is aging and games do matter, but there is still a larger base of movie watchers than game players. And as long as that remains true, a game platform won’t tip the scales either way in mass acceptance.

Summary

In the end what it all boils down to for me is this: what do I want out of either format? I want to buy high definition movies and high resolution audio for playback on a single player, not two players or dual-format player. In addition I want to ensure the ones I do purchase are viable years down the road.

Which format gives me the best shot at accomplishing my goal? I believe HD-DVD does because I feel that the majority of other consumers with my needs will make the same decision, thereby pushing my chosen format even farther along. Any format with enough consumer support will force the studios and labels to get on board.

The format war wasn’t my choice, but hopefully my choice will help end it.



Posted by B.Greenway | | Filed Under Blu-ray & HD-DVD


Comments

  • Brian Hoyt
    I agree with you about 90%. I am no fan of Sony recently or the PS3. The PS3 is still the unknown in all of this. The reason I think is price. Say the PS3 comes out at $500, possible given the market they are shooting for. If that happens it changes several of your points above. Also I can almost guarantee the PS3 will outsell all combined sales of HD-DVD players in the first year.

    The closest parallel to this is the PS2 and DVD in Japan. In Japan VCD and SVCD had a much bigger usage than in US and as a result DVD had a much slower uptake there. However once the PS2 came out the number of DVD players exploded almost overnight as a result so did the DVD market.

    Given all of that I just want one format. The actual film data will be almost identical on both formats, so really I just want HD quality movies.
  • Ben Hobbs
    I have to say that I agree with you, Blueray is a cool name but it just seems to have so many technological hurdles to overcome.

    Consumers are getting used to being able to buy DVD players for reasonable amounts of money, a decent quality DVD player can be had for under $100, I've seen some DVD players selling for as little as $25.

    There's no way people are going to take a gamble on buying a $1,000 machine that may well be obsolete within 12 months, some may spend the $500 for a HD DVD if it has a decent enough catalogue.

    The PS3 having a Blue-Ray player has no significance on the format war in my eyes, People who buy games machines buy them to play games with, especially in the first 6 months+ of release - after that they may take some time to appreciate other qualities.

    Its not about the studios, electronics companies or even software companies (Microsoft) - Its all about the consumers, the first to market, affordable HD player will no doubt win, on very much the same terms as VHS. Hell, it may not even be either of these formats.
  • B.Greenway
    Hey Brian,

    You make some really good points. Absolutely the PS3 will be a force to be reckoned with, but I have to think that HD-DVD’s 6-7 month head start has to be factored in as well.

    I suppose another possible scenario is, HD-DVD does better than the analysts expect combined with the initial Blu-ray players selling less than expcted, they’ll still have a second shot with the PS3.

    I don’t know, I realize that game consoles are huge, but even if you combined all the playstations and xbox’s together would they out number DVD players?

    And if the PS3 is the ultimate gaming platform are you going to be able to pry the controller out of someone’s hand long enough to watch a move? Maybe if they promote it as an entertainment platform more than a gaming platform, maybe.
  • Mike Weston
    Random thoughts...

    (1) The CD thing is news to me, and will surprise people, and not in a good way.

    (2) A related question: How good will the players be at being upconverting DVD players? People will be playing DVDs more than HD content for quite a while, and I for one only have one HDMI input on my TV.

    (3) I'm surprised you didn't mention Microsoft as an advantage for HD-DVD. I'm not a big fan of Microsoft, but it should help HD-DVD.

    (4) But the biggest thing on my mind is not the price of the players, but the potential lost investment in the software. With something in the neighborhood of 800 DVDs, I shudder at the thought of not being able to play them. If you buy HD-DVD software and Blu-Ray wins, you'll be screwed once your player dies, and vice versa. And if the discs sell slowly because people are worried about that scenario, it may not matter how well the players are doing.

    (5) On the whole, though, I was way more convinced by your argument than I expected to be. I didn't vote for either format in your poll, but have been siding more with Blu-Ray due to its bigger capacity. But since this is probably the last physical format war, the winning format probably doesn't need to last even as long as DVD has.
  • chuck
    What I refuse to understand is why bother in the first place! MS has suggested a solution ages ago: standard 2-layer DVD with VC-1-encoded content. That or H.264/AVC and you’ve got a winner all around. This said I have really high hopes for South-East Asia: they already have two formats, FVD and EVD, both sporting multi-layer red-laser DVD, FVD has a bigger track, EVD – up to 10 layers. 10 * 4.5 GB = 45 GB, but the same red laser. FVD players are already in retail for some $150 in Taiwan, I’ve ordered one already.
  • shakaZOLO
    How much is HD-DVD paying you for this? While I think your argument is succinct , it could easily be made for Blu-ray as well. If we put ourselves behind either format it will succeed. As to advantages, neither can be argued yet, since nothing is really shipping. Consumer demand will dictate features. Just as you say studio support will follow, so will CD and DVD support for Blu-ray. I can't imagine the exects at Sony are sitting around saying "ha ha ha, we'll not support CD and DVD - let's show those bastards". No, they are probably shitting their pants try to figure a way to get support as soon as possible.

    I personally think this will all come down to PR and marketing hype. People will be able to easily distinguish Blu-ray when they are bombarded with the media blitz during the superbowl and prime time (Sony = deep marketing pockets). HD-DVD is a descriptive name, but that doesn't account for the success of Google, Yahoo, Amazon, etc. And Sony has the edge if they can get the PS3 out in a reasonable timeframe. The PS3 is a vehicle to market Blu-ray. It won't be the platform of choice for most, but it's another way to gain recognition.

    So, while I agree that it doesn't matter which format has better technical stats, it does matter who will be able to sell more widgets. Sony has definitely failed in the past, but nobody can argue that they haven't has some successes. For me, I'll get a dual-format player (Arcam, Integra....let's get a move on it) and let the cards fall as they may.
  • Kevin
    Nice article. I, too, was suprised by the lack of CD functionality.

    The only point I'd minorly disagree with you on is #3. While HD-DVD is probably more intuitivly easy to understand, it also 5 syllables compared to 2 for Blu-Ray. I do think that matters.

    As a side note, why can't a large corporation with the scientific resources of Sony figure out that Blue is spelled with an "e"?
  • B.Greenway
    Hey Chuck,

    Why bother? I want to watch high definition movies on DVD, not sit around waiting forever for the “best” solution.

    It’s kind of like waiting for prices on video projectors to fall, if you wait on that magical price point you’ll never have one, because as soon as they hit it something you’d rather have will come along and you start waiting all over again.

    I guess the short answer to your second point is impatience. Yes MS offered an alternative some time back, and it hasn’t moved forward a bit since then…

    I’m trying to keep this real world not ‘what if’. The simple fact is Toshiba and Sony are the only two companies that have offered up a commercially viable format/platform that the studios have shown interest in. All the hardware in the world doesn’t mean poo to me if there aren’t movies to watch on the hardware.

    You think you’ll ever be able to rent movies for those FVD/EVD players, in the U.S?
  • EnergyGuru
    Will you be getting the Toshiba player or waiting for a more high end player to come out?
  • B.Greenway
    shakaZOLO

    How much is HD-DVD paying me for this? Hmm the format war has been on-going for over two years now; I first mentioned it back on July 12th 2004, that first post called for unification, as well as almost every other post since.

    April 7th 2006 (this post) was the first time I picked sides… surely if I was a corporate mouthpiece for Toshiba they would have instructed me to start the propaganda campaign a little sooner, as both formats are less than two months from launch.

    I really don’t think the case could be made both ways. I really feel this will be decided much faster than some are willing to admit; now when I say decided I don’t mean Sony throwing their arms up and declaring we give! we give! I mean a market saturation of (insert random number here) players sold.

    I have no idea what that magical number is but once its reached by either side, it will be hard to justify keeping around the format that finished in second place.

    As far as your point on features not included yet, if you’ll notice I mentioned “I’ll grant you that the ease of transition problems (if any) can easily be remedied by the manufacturers” we fully agree on this point, but that will never change the fact that Sony’s first player to market wont even play a CD.

    Sure maybe their 2nd 3rd 4th and every player on will, but not that first player their brining to market. It strikes me odd that in a format war they wouldn’t want to offer every feature people have come to expect in a 1k disc player.

    You make mention that Sony is probably trying to get those features incorporated as fast as possible. Maybe they could just ask Toshiba how they did it. I kid!

    Yeah, hey listen I reserve the right to change my mind in a heartbeat. What would it take to change my mind? Player sales, that’s it. If Sony sells 2 million players the first month vs Toshibas 250k I’d have to be a lunatic to not step back and re-evaluate my choice. But at $500 vs $1k I just don’t see it happening, I think Sony made a mistake pushing the premium product first. Any other time that’s a perfectly acceptable strategy, but not in the middle of a format war.

    You know, here’s my problem with dual-format players. Let’s say 1/2 of the movies I buy are Blu-ray and 1/2 are HD-DVD, all’s well and good for a year or so as the format war plays out. Then suddenly two months after it’s decided either side wins, my dual-format player dies. I’m stuck with half a video collection I can’t watch.

    I would probably have to wind up either trying to sell the useless discs off at a huge loss, or go and try to find that formats player used on ebay, and eventually go through the whole thing again. Nah like I said dual-format players are a band-aid in my opinion. I want a clear hands down winner.
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