I have a small dedicated movie/gaming room in my house. Stocked with mid priced equipment, we find it to be great entertainment and prefer this to a trip to the movie theater.

I went out on a limb during the DVD / DIVX war and voted with my $$$. I voted for DVD and bought a first generation $500 Pioneer with limited features. I decided then on DVD because I thought the general public just didn’t want the hassles of DIVX.

Sounds to me like there is some similiarity here. HD-DVD players will play standard DVD’s, CD’s, and HD-DVD’s with no hassles. Blu-Ray players will play Blu-Ray discs and…. games …. and they cost twice as much.

I believe there are many more consumers that will buy a multipurpose platform for $500 than there are consumers that will pay $1000 for a single purpose platform.

And since I can add High Definition movies to my XBOX 360 for only $200 you can probably guess how I’m going to vote this time.

Blu-ray’s launch strategy of 500-600 dollar game consoles and 1K+ stand-alone players completely ignores those unwilling to invest 1k in a first generation player and those who aren’t interested in game consoles, no matter what they may offer in the way of BD playback. End result; the bulk of the people necessary to propel the format forward are left without a viable option for BD hardware.

In the months since however I’ve mentioned several times how much I’m enjoying HD DVD and how dismayed I am at all the negative reports of hardware and software quality issues with Blu-ray. But aside from the negative reviews of others, I’ve been able to verify much of this first hand. I’ve yet to find any application or scenario where I can definitively point to Blu-ray’s superiority, to the contrary HD DVD has already enjoyed a significantly higher rate of quality transfers and owner satisfaction with the hardware.

So with the benefit of months of observations of both formats, my stance remains the same. My choice for the next generation high definition optical disc format remains HD DVD.

Things are definitely better, in business, politics, or life when the best side wins, not the side with the best promotion or marketing. If Blu-ray is better, let’s go that way.

Importantly Europe is likely to see High Def DVD’s from the Xbox 360 before the PS3 is even released, This in addition to the fact the PS3 isn’t going to be available over the Christmas period (at least in Eruope) is I think important.

Despite what interest a format may generate in the short-term by being related to another popular device – that ultimately never matters in the end. People buy a game system to play games and a stand-alone video player to watch movies – that’s just the way it is. Think about it: the average housewife, family, or even you don’t want to have to use the PS3’s boomerang controller/whatever to view movies, you don’t want to have to share such a system with others in the household. If you want to play Killzone 2, while your kid sister wants to watch HD Finding Nemo or your dad/whoever want’s to watch HD Band of Brothers – then it creates an immediate motivation to end the BS and just buy a stand-alone player.

Heck, most of the time – if you buy a PS3, you’ll keep it in your room anyway where the HD function doesn’t generate any interest from anybody except maybe you – and in the short term only – because you bought it to play games anyway. Besides, even if your PS3 is in the living room – people without your same interest in videogames/PS3 already – will basically ignore it anyhow due to the perception that it is basically just another game machine. I mean, how often did your Mom, Dad (or other person with their mainstream tastes) turn on your PS2 to watch a DVD movie back in the day? Probably never.

At the end of the day, people buy devices for their primary advertised function only. Just look at how UMD discs have now almost completely failed. Now suddenly the PSP is just a gaming device and nobody cares (except maybe those nuts that invested alot in that movie format).

Beyond that this situation is different from the PS2 and DVD situation furthermore. DVD was THE long-awaited solution to out-dated VHS. It received a huge marketing push by every retailer, store, and entertainment brand in the country (whether they were personally invested in the format or not) due to this. It filled a wide-spread need and did it in a way that was simple and relatable to anyone. Then soon enough, it was very inexpensive as well.

With HD/Blu-Ray we have a situation that is more akin to the release of laser-disc. The HD format is something that is primarily of interest only to videophiles and home theater enthusiasts. The average person could care less, since their happy with the picture quality of DVD and would never dream of re-buying their entire collections AGAIN…especially for a visual improvement that isn’t THAT much of a jump or that at the very least, requires an expensive and well-calibrated set. Now that may change over time as the average family is forced to upgrade their TVs due to wear and tear or the demand of TV broadcasting technology…but to say that that is a ways off is an understatement.

The only thing that will decide the HD disc war is the amount of initial stand-alone players sold within the first year or two of both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD being out. If one greatly outsells the other for whatever reason (usually price matters here) – then it’s over. If neither outsells the other – then both formats will end up being more like laserdisc then ever. Only gaining acceptance with the niche crowd of home theater enthusiasts and never being embraced by the mainstream.

The mainstream needs time to accept a new format, especially so soon after have finally fully embraced and entrenched themselves in DVD. Unless HD discs were some miracle-worker things that projected a 3D image around the room or sucked your body straight into the movie (which they are not) – then they won’t draw the average consumers attention for quite a while. And by that, I mean years not months.

I’m not a supporter of either camp. All I really want is a swift and complete decision to one side so that it’s over and home theater enthusiasts like me can get on with our lives. Among those enthusiasts who would most support and buy the formats in their first two years – each side has different advantages that will come into play. Price seems like the most obvious thing that will matter most. Then availability, variety, and quality of content (certainly the first of two to more fully embrace non-typical movies like Asian action films, porno, etc will have an advantage). And then finally, (for the mainstream primarily) probably marketing and the push for sales of a given format in popular local stores like Best Buy or Walmart.

Honestly, if I had to place a bet now – I’d say HD-DVD for the win due to the price issue but the next two years will most-likely be a battle too close to call – since it seems that sooner or later both sides will be offering or willing to offer the same level of quality at very similar price points.

As I am, sort of, forced to choose now (since the formats are basically out and since I’m an HD lover who desperately wants a DVD upgrade) – I also choose HD-DVD. The reasons for this are price (as much as I love it, I’m sick of spending money on my HD rig – so price has become a big issue for me), the fact that it’s available this very second (and the fact that a stand-alone BR player at $500 dollars is quite a ways off), and also since I can see that (going forward) all things in terms of quality/availability between the two formats will basically be equal.

I’m one of those aging video gamers at 35.

I’m looking to buy a PS3 when it allegedly launches in November (Sony initially said this spring at the E3 show, but that’s another topic). I’m looking to buy a PS3 for gaming, not watching movies, in fact I couldn’t care less if it didn’t play hi-def Dvd’s. This is why Sony cannot get the PS3 to launch in time, by trying to force a Blu-ray format into every PS3. Sony keeps shooting themselves in the foot time after time. Why not launch the PS3 like the Xbox360?, with a future ad-on for hi-def dvd. No sir, Sony tried to do too much too fast.

Sony deep pockets? Last time I checked the company is in huge trouble, laying off workers for the first time last year with even greater cuts to workers in the future just to keep the company in the black. Appointing their current CEO, a fellow from Britain? With no real business education?? Are you kidding me? I thought this was GIANT SONY OF JAPAN. Sony is on thin ice and if this Blu-ray tanks only the PS3 console will save them.

I’m betting the HD-DVD format will be standing after the dust settles. You have to look at it from the average-joe perspective: price ($500 at launch, surely models at 1/2 that price by year end), available movies (Warner, Paramount, Universal), picture quality (hi-def is hi-def). The mass market will determine the winner not the video/audiophiles of the world.

Look at MP3’s, this is the sound quality accepted by the masses today…need I say more? So sad really.

The not playing CD’s thing was Sony’s first stand-alone Blu-ray players, not the PS3 to my knowledge.

Microsoft have a vested interest in seeing Blue-Ray die, or at least relegated to just the PS3. I’m personally a little bored with waiting for so long, we’ve had High Definition TV’s for years now, they are supposed to be the hard part.

I do not see the ps3 making the case on which format wins. I have an older xbox and a ps2 i don’t use either to watch movies on never have. I bought it for games only i have a very nice dvd for my movies.

One thing i do like is the HD-DVD player will play all my current dvd’s that is a VERY BIG PLUS FOR ME.

I feel like I’m repeating myself here but I’ll bite again

I just don’t feel like a studio or two will make or break the deal either way before the formats have even launched. If enough players get sold on either side, the studios won’t ignore that potential revenue. Again we’re talking about publicly traded companies, they have to answer to stockholders not technophiles.

I still contend that with HD-DVD players costing $500 less than Blu-rays initial offerings combined with that fact that they’ll have a 6-8 week head start on the Blu-rays players and 6 to 7 month head start on the PS3 all things aren’t ‘equal’. $500 is a lot of money to me, maybe I’m in the minority here <– sarcasm for the win.

Again with the PS2/PS3 and market saturation, of those 100 million PS2’s I wonder how many are still used daily? Surely PC games and the Xbox have lured away some of those gamers. Of the 120 million+ DVD players sold I wonder how many of their owners have abandoned DVD for a better format? ehh none I’m guessing as one doesn’t exist, yet…

Trust me, I get the fact that game consoles are a big deal, I’m a gamer myself (PC games) and there may come a time where game consoles decides our next movie format, I just don’t think that time has come yet.

Time will tell, I promise not to gloat (too much) if I’m right, and if I’m wrong at least I took a stand and made my case where others played it safe from the sidelines.

Five major studios support BD.
Three major studios support HD-DVD.

Unless this changes, BD will win.

100 million PS2’s versus 127 million DVD players? Sounds like an argument FOR the influence of the PlayStation, if you ask me. Let’s say that means in the next-gen war, 100 million PS3’s get sold. That’s on top of all the other standalone BD players out there by Pioneer, Samsung, Sony itself, etc. That’s a HUGE installed base. That’s a big BD win. Though you protest that you include this in your calculations, I don’t think you give it the weight it deserves.

Great article, BTW!