Could gamers really be all that different? I don’t buy into that logic anymore, and I would love to see one or two of the formerly exclusively Blu Ray studios to release in HD-DVD.

I would love that, in fact.

Could gamers really be all that different? I don’t buy into that logic anymore, and I would love to see one or two of the formerly exclusively Blu Ray studios to release in HD-DVD.

I would love that, in fact.

There’s such a focus on hardware in these debates, especially as it comes from the BD groups and their dreaded “potential PS3 installed base,” but that’s not really what’s going to determine anything in the war. Especially that now and within a month there will be a solid handful of different/good players to use on both formats.

No, this will be about software. How good is the picture quality, how good/popular are the titles, how many units of software are moved by someone who has an HD playback device, etc. And as it stands now BD is relying on a released catalog of basically no or very few “shock and awe” titles (a la Batman Begins, Kong, and everything else HD DVD is putting out), a catalog that has 1/3rd less titles out in general than HD DVD, a catalog who’s overall variety/content of movies is seen as generally inferior to HD DVD, and what they do have out is often poor or sub-par in the picture quality department, and then they are finally depending primarily on the PS3 to generate BD movie sales when all the PS3 will really do is sell games.

Now don’t get me wrong, a PS3 already sitting in your house that you’ve paid off, might entice you to try out BD and high-def by buying a couple of titles. But then again why wouldn’t you just rent them, given all the uncertainty of BD quality so far? And isn’t the gamer who picks this up early planning to blow his wad on games not movies? I mean this same audience still owns these same movies on SD DVD and are generally satisfied with that, this same audience only has regular CRTs or basic first-gen HDTVs that they know really won’t work to display these formats very well. They’re probably the types who are sitting around renting SD DVDs while saving up to afford a new HDTV for general purpose use.

Moreover, – if you are a gamer and so hardcore/rich that you’ve already purchased a sexy, newer high-end HDTV and are ready to drop the dough on the expensive PS3 and it’s games – aren’t you the same kind of person that has enough money or enthusiast-thinking that you already own a 360 as well, that you already would buy/own a stand-alone HD DVD player anyway?

Isn’t it true that of all the things that can play HD movies that the PS3 is probably the least likely to have a strong movie attach rate? I mean the audience is either buying it for the games or are already rich/hardcore enough to own/buy either HD DVD or BD stand-alones.

Anyway, that’s my 2 cents. The PS3 today is not the trojan horse execs imagined it would be, if it ever even could have been with circumstances being different. As it stands, the PS3 has just about every hurdle you can imagine to get over. An extreme shortage, a generally poor launch-lineup, the most expensive price for a game system ever, powerful competition from the 360/Wii, generally bad word of mouth due to all of Sony’s cocky press releases and disappointing announcments, etc, etc, etc.

I expect the release of the PS3 to create a miniscule bump in BD movie sales that will almost immediately be eclipsed and shadowed over by HD DVD movie sales that will continue to be reported to sell at 3:1 (in conservative estimates) to as high as 16:1 (which we’ve already seen with certain higher estimates that compare HD DVD directly to BD instead of against “all high-def formats” as quoted in the VideoScan numbers above).

There’s such a focus on hardware in these debates, especially as it comes from the BD groups and their dreaded “potential PS3 installed base,” but that’s not really what’s going to determine anything in the war. Especially that now and within a month there will be a solid handful of different/good players to use on both formats.

No, this will be about software. How good is the picture quality, how good/popular are the titles, how many units of software are moved by someone who has an HD playback device, etc. And as it stands now BD is relying on a released catalog of basically no or very few “shock and awe” titles (a la Batman Begins, Kong, and everything else HD DVD is putting out), a catalog that has 1/3rd less titles out in general than HD DVD, a catalog who’s overall variety/content of movies is seen as generally inferior to HD DVD, and what they do have out is often poor or sub-par in the picture quality department, and then they are finally depending primarily on the PS3 to generate BD movie sales when all the PS3 will really do is sell games.

Now don’t get me wrong, a PS3 already sitting in your house that you’ve paid off, might entice you to try out BD and high-def by buying a couple of titles. But then again why wouldn’t you just rent them, given all the uncertainty of BD quality so far? And isn’t the gamer who picks this up early planning to blow his wad on games not movies? I mean this same audience still owns these same movies on SD DVD and are generally satisfied with that, this same audience only has regular CRTs or basic first-gen HDTVs that they know really won’t work to display these formats very well. They’re probably the types who are sitting around renting SD DVDs while saving up to afford a new HDTV for general purpose use.

Moreover, – if you are a gamer and so hardcore/rich that you’ve already purchased a sexy, newer high-end HDTV and are ready to drop the dough on the expensive PS3 and it’s games – aren’t you the same kind of person that has enough money or enthusiast-thinking that you already own a 360 as well, that you already would buy/own a stand-alone HD DVD player anyway?

Isn’t it true that of all the things that can play HD movies that the PS3 is probably the least likely to have a strong movie attach rate? I mean the audience is either buying it for the games or are already rich/hardcore enough to own/buy either HD DVD or BD stand-alones.

Anyway, that’s my 2 cents. The PS3 today is not the trojan horse execs imagined it would be, if it ever even could have been with circumstances being different. As it stands, the PS3 has just about every hurdle you can imagine to get over. An extreme shortage, a generally poor launch-lineup, the most expensive price for a game system ever, powerful competition from the 360/Wii, generally bad word of mouth due to all of Sony’s cocky press releases and disappointing announcments, etc, etc, etc.

I expect the release of the PS3 to create a miniscule bump in BD movie sales that will almost immediately be eclipsed and shadowed over by HD DVD movie sales that will continue to be reported to sell at 3:1 (in conservative estimates) to as high as 16:1 (which we’ve already seen with certain higher estimates that compare HD DVD directly to BD instead of against “all high-def formats” as quoted in the VideoScan numbers above).